Latinos drive California's economic edge in new GDP report

California Latinos are now growing their economic contribution 2.7 times faster than non-Latinos, according to a new 2026 report from California Lutheran University and UCLA. The findings show Latinos are increasingly central to the state’s growth, labor force, and global economic ranking as California’s broader economy has slowed.

Why it matters: - California’s economic standing now depends heavily on Latino growth, according to the 2026 California LatinoGDP Report. - The report says California would have lost its edge versus the broader U.S. economy without Latino output. - Latinos now account for most of the state’s population growth and a rising share of its labor force and educated workers.

What happened: - Researchers at California Lutheran University and UCLA released the 2026 California LatinoGDP Report on Oct. 5, 2026. - The report finds California Latino GDP is growing 2.7 times faster than California Non-Latino GDP. - California’s non-Latino economy grew 2.2% in 2024. - From 2019 to 2024, California GDP grew 12.6% slower than U.S. GDP, after California had outpaced the nation by 57% from 1997 to 2019. - Without Latino growth, the gap with the U.S. would have been more than 37%.

The details: - California Latino GDP reached $1.07 trillion in 2024, a figure larger than the entire economy of Switzerland. - California’s overall GDP was $4.05 trillion in 2024, the world’s 5th largest economy. - Without Latinos, California would rank as the world’s 8th largest economy instead of 5th. - Latinos make up 41% of Californians but have accounted for 95% of population growth since 2010. - Since 2010, California’s Latino labor force has grown nearly 20 times faster than the non-Latino labor force. - The number of California Latinos with a bachelor’s degree or higher is growing 3.5 times faster than the comparable non-Latino group. - The report is the 32nd full-length publication from the LatinoGDP Project. - The project is a collaboration between Community Partners, UCLA’s Center for the Study of Latino Health & Culture, and Cal Lutheran’s Center for Economic Research & Forecasting. - The report builds on the 2026 U.S. LatinoGDP Report released in May, which said U.S. Latino direct economic output topped $4.4 trillion in 2024. - That U.S. total surpassed Japan’s GDP for the first time and made Latino GDP the world’s fourth largest economy. - Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Latino GDP has been the fastest-growing among major economies, outpacing India and China. - The full report is available at the LatinoGDP website. - A fireside chat featuring Matthew Fienup, David Hayes-Bautista and Univision Primetime Anchor Gabriela Teissier is available through the LatinoGDP website. - Questions about the report can be directed to Matthew Fienup at mfienup@callutheran.edu and David Hayes-Bautista at dhayesb@ucla.edu.

Between the lines: - The report frames Latino economic growth as a buffer against California’s slower post-pandemic performance. - The findings suggest California’s future workforce, consumer base and innovation pipeline are becoming more dependent on Latino residents. - The report also argues that Latino gains are helping sustain California’s national and global ranking even as non-Latino growth trails. - Matthew Fienup said California’s long-running growth advantage over the U.S. is no longer guaranteed. - Dan Hamilton said Latino growth lifts the entire California economy nationally and globally. - David Hayes-Bautista said a bright future for California’s economy is not possible without Latinos.

What's next: - The LatinoGDP Project says it now covers targeted states and major metropolitan areas, in addition to national and California reports. - The project also includes the inaugural U.S. LatinaGDP Report, released in August 2024. - Researchers say more reports and related materials are available through the LatinoGDP websites.